Vantage Point: Volatility  

What investors can learn from the volatility of the past

  • To discover how the present level of volatility compares to history
  • To understand the difference between volatility and risk
  • To understand the longer-term outlook for equities
CPD
Approx.30min

By way of contrast, today’s equity index is dominated by technology companies with net cash on their balance sheets and very high returns on invested capital.

These seem likely to cope well with varying economic conditions, including rising inflation, which should have only a modest effect on their costs. The most likely risks to this group come from anti-trust regulation in the US and digital protection rules in Europe.

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For those who can invest for the longer term, I would conclude that periods of market volatility throw up opportunities to buy global equities.

The largest companies in the indices (also the largest holdings in many funds) are fundamentally well equipped to grow shareholders’ wealth over time.  

Currently equity markets have been rocked by rising inflation and more recently by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This has led to volatility and a sharp equity market correction.

The rise in inflation that was apparent at the end of 2021 made us look again at a range of companies that had been overlooked for some years; high-quality companies that grow less slowly.

We sometimes refer to these as our ‘cockroach’ stocks as they keep making money even in very demanding economic or inflationary conditions. 

This group includes US railway companies such as Union Pacific, telephone companies such as Nippon Telegraph & Telephone and Singapore Telecom. 

Wars, inflation, rising interest rates and even threats of recession make little difference to how much money these companies make for shareholders. We therefore feel they have a role in balancing an investment portfolio in these volatile times.

Medium term, the war increases inflationary pressures through restricting supplies of many commodities. The last time markets had commodity inflation and weak economies was the 1970s.

In that market a group of large, highly profitable growth companies dominated returns – they became known as the ‘nifty 50’. This was a small number of companies that performed well despite high valuations. 

Although the companies that now lead the index are well known and have performed well over the past decade, they may still prove the nifty 50 for the investment period we are now entering.

Simon Edelsten is co-manager of the Mid Wynd International Investment Trust and the Artemis Global Select Fund. 

CPD
Approx.30min

Please answer the six multiple choice questions below in order to bank your CPD. Multiple attempts are available until all questions are correctly answered.

  1. How does traditional market theory measure the risk associated with an equity?

  2. What does Edelsten say is the biggest threat to the prospects of the tech companies?

  3. What does war increase over the medium term?

  4. What were the nifty 50?

  5. What is the beta of Admiral Group?

  6. What is Microsoft's return on invested capital?

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  • To discover how the present level of volatility compares to history
  • To understand the difference between volatility and risk
  • To understand the longer-term outlook for equities

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