US  

US winners and losers under Trump

This article is part of
Guide to President Trump's impact on investments

He believes credit is likely to perform better than sovereign debt against this backdrop, but agrees with other commentators that risks are mounting to the downside.

Mr Roberts explains: “Fundamentally we think this environment will be okay for credit, but credit may be caught between more attractive risk-free assets and equities which should benefit from growth and inflation. The technicals could get nasty.”

Article continues after advert

From Kames’ perspective, Mr Roberts adds recent market moves have benefited the team’s fixed income portfolios and should continue to present opportunities.

Shaun McDade, managing director in Guernsey for Miton Optimal, comments: "Owning a volatile portfolio of high-quality shares is going to be far less risky than owning a diversified, low-volatility portfolio of government-backed sovereign bonds yielding close to zero over the long term, especially due to the potentially higher inflation consequences of a US fiscal spending programme."

Other assets

According to Hargreaves Lansdown's senior analyst Laith Khalaf: "The dollar has proved to be a casualty of Mr Trump's win, as markets slashed forecasts of a US rate rise in December. The chances of this have now been pegged back to 50:50".

Indeed, dollar's fall was sterling's win, as the pound ticked up more than 1 per cent against the dollar for the first time in months, although it quickly fell back on 9 November to finish the day just 0.5 per cent higher than the dollar at US$1.2445.

The dollar fell to 1.237 on 9 November and is currently at 1.249 as at 22 November. 

Higher anticipated yields may support the US dollar and, in turn, the US economy, according to Peter Elston, chief investment officer for Seneca Investment Managers. 

He says: "If Mr Trump can fulfill his promises to America's lower income groups, there might be a case for becoming more positive on America's longer-term growth prospects.

"This means while there will no doubt be a negative response from financial markets to Mr Trump's victory in the short-term, they could quickly recover."

Anthony Willis, investment manager in the multi-manager team at BMO Global Asset Management, comments: "From a domestic point of view, higher fiscal spending could be supportive for the economy, although this will increase the debt burden."

simoney.kyriakou@ft.com